Friday, September 05, 2008

2008 Fighting Irish predictions

I happen to subscribe to the theory that we will be better than last year, simply because we can't possibly be much worse. There were enough bright spots especially toward the end of last season to make me think that we have some solid if not spectacular college players, who this year will experience circumstances much more conducive to building confidence, improving as a team, and most importantly, winning some games. That includes the construction and sequencing of the schedule, the significant loss of production that some of our repeat opponents will face, and perhaps most importantly, a different attitude from the coaching staff. Make no mistake, though; we will see some more growing pains this year. We're still a couple of echelons below the elite teams, but we're also that much better than the shitty teams we compared to last year.

San Diego State - They were shitty last year and they lost everyone who made them that good. One of the teams that we really have no business playing, and we should be embarrassed that they're on our schedule -- almost as embarrassed as the Aztecs will be, 31-9.


Michigan - It'll be tough sledding trying to run on the Wolverines, so Charlie's stated commitment to "pound it" will be tested, especially if the spread offense gives us problems. The good news is that's not likely to be a huge problem in just their second game with a bunch of square pegs. (Plus one has to hope Tenuta has learned from his experience in the '07 Gator Bowl when GT gave up 38 points to WVU.) I hope to be pleasantly surprised by our ability to move the ball, but given the last two outings against them I'll have to see it to believe it. UM wins in ugly fashion, 20-13.

Michigan State - This game could be a turning point, in either direction, for our defense. I don't expect the Spartans to be very successful passing the ball, and if our secondary is as good as advertised, they will have to turn to the running game, which should be stout. Will our D-line be able to stand up to a veteran O-line of snowplows blocking for one of the nation's best backs? Will our offense be able to control the ball against a very solid defense? I don't think the answers to either of those questions will be pleasant. MSU makes up for the collapse in Katrina, 31-14.

Purdue - Seems like they had half a dozen guys catch 10 balls for 150 yards against us last year. Good news is almost all of them are gone, and our improved secondary should shine against the current WR corps. Plus their QB has been almost unilaterally crummy against good defenses. Like MSU, Purdue will have to run the ball to score on us, but unlike MSU, they don't have the talent to do it well. Our offense will show signs of life against a below average Big 10 D and it'll feel good to get back to beating the Boilers, 27-13.

Stanford - Theirs is an offense that mostly chases its tail, and a defense that is equally adept at surrending yards and points via the run and the pass. There's a lot of room for improvement for the Cardinal, but I don't think the talent that's on campus now can realize it. Our offense (such as it was) really started to click against them last year, and once again we'll impress on the ground and in the air with a 31-16 win.


North Carolina - It will be a transitional year for the Tar Heels. They will be looking for consistency in the running game and improved production from their QB, and a solid defense loses some key contributors and welcomes a new coordinator who "led" one of the truly horrid defenses last year at Minnesota. The big question is, will they be seeing the results they want by this point in the season? I do believe that our team, on both sides of the ball, will be hitting a stride and if we avoid the injury bug this will be a good road test. This seems to be a much more even matchup on paper than many think it will be on the field, and could well come down to special teams play or even overtime. Yet for some reason I still think we will pull it out, 22-19.

Washington - They are really, really bad. They have a good, NFL potential QB who is surrounded by such horrid teammates that he'll be lucky to still be alive by this game. Haywood could e-mail them the gameplan on Wednesday and we'd still cruise to victory. Slam the door on Ty, 35-7.

Pitt - They have a pretty good defense that because of/in spite of Wanny's influence will probably be able to shut down a number of their opponents this year. I expect them to have decent outings in their first four games, then get tested in the next three games with different looks and strengths being shown by USF, Navy, and Rutgers before they hit us. It'll be a battle given that we will have shown most if not all of our offensive strentghts and strategies and they just might have a new wrinkle in store for us. Offensively, I don't expect Pitt to be world beaters, though they do have some cohesiveness and might start to click with outings against the three opponents mentioned above. A low scoring game, swung by the fact that I will be there*, and Pitt will pull it out 20-17.

BC - I wonder if their stud returning WRs were a product of the now-graduated QB and O-linemen that played with them, or are really that good on their own. Either way, they will struggle to match last year's production with all the rest of the pieces being interchanged. They'll be a mediocre at best offensive squad. However, their defense will keep them in a lot of games but despite their recent success against us, we probably will hit them at the worst placement in their schedule in recent memory. Not that they'll ever look past us, or even consider trading a win over ND for four otherwise-losses, but coming off consecutive games against Virginia Tech, UNC, and Clemson, and with FSU looming the next week, we'll be primed to stake our pride on a tough road win, and in our last true challenge before heading to LA, we'll pull out a 23-17 triumph.

Navy - They'll have a noted dropoff in offensive talent, and the fact that they have a new coach -- though schooled in the Navy system -- convinces me that the option attack will be less effective this year. And the defense that held us to our highest output of the season last year figures to put a lot of pressure on the offense just to keep things competitive. If at this point in the season our offense isn't clicking, I'll lose enough faith in Charlie to start the search for his replacement. A new streak begins with a 38-22 win in Baltimore, where a reunion of east coast jamokes results in noticeable booting on William Street.

Syracuse - Another truly disgraceful team that will do nothing but contribute to the (increasingly rightful) perception that we are consciously trying to engineer a soft, cowardly schedule once we get into a ten year agreement with them. They are actually bad enough that this year's version of the Irish will match up with them as well as the '06 edition beat down Army on senior day. Put it this way, if we don't have a very, very easy win all hope might be lost for ND football. I look for a 42-17 contest.

USC - Last year I commented on how this team simply reloads, no matter who they lose from year to year. I can't do anything but reiterate those sentiments because even the people who will be counted on to start and initiate big plays have significant experience already. I'm not sure we'll have even a puncher's chance to win, but I do hope that we'll show enough resilience that Poodle and company start thinking that we'll be able to goe toe to toe with them next year and beyond. A last hurrah for SC's current streak, 37-13.

*Since that inglorious streak, I have seen two wins over UCLA and two blowout losses to LSU and Georgia Tech. I'll be at the Pitt, Navy, and UNC games this year and hopefully we'll be over .500 in my presence.

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